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DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation)

Calculate enterprise value, equity value and value per share with a DCF: projected free cash flows plus a Gordon-growth terminal value.

업데이트 검증한 예제: 4

$
The most recent annual free cash flow; year 1 is this grown once
%
years
%
%
Long-run growth after the projection; keep it at or below the risk-free rate
$
Debt minus cash; enter a negative number for net cash
시도하기
Enterprise value
$
Enterprise value: $86,012,011.42
소수 자릿수: 2; 가장 가까운 값, 중간값은 끝자리가 짝수인 쪽으로
Equity value
$76,012,011.42
Value per share
$7.60
Present value of projected cash flows
$23,668,973.97
Terminal value (at end of projection)
$100,404,085.25
Present value of terminal value
$62,343,037.45
Share of value from terminal value
72.5%

Discounting 5 years of cash flow plus a terminal value gives an enterprise value of $86,012,011.42, 72% of it from the years after the projection. After net debt the equity is worth $76,012,011.42, or $7.60 per share.

Where the enterprise value comes from

72%from terminal value
Years 1–5 cash flows27.5%Terminal value72.5%

Cash flow and its present value by year

$0$2M$4M$6M$8MY1Y2Y3Y4Y5
Present valueLost to discounting
Projected free cash flows 행 수: 6
년Free cash flowDiscount factorPresent value
1$5,400,000.000.9091$4,909,090.91
2$5,832,000.000.8264$4,819,834.71
3$6,298,560.000.7513$4,732,201.35
4$6,802,444.800.683$4,646,161.33
5$7,346,640.380.6209$4,561,685.67
Terminal$100,404,085.250.6209$62,343,037.45
계산 방법 S

  1. Project the cash flows

    FCFt=5,000,000×(1+0.08)t,FCF5=7,346,640.38FCF_t = 5{,}000{,}000 \times (1 + 0.08)^t,\quad FCF_{5} = 7{,}346{,}640.38

  2. Discount each year

    ∑t=15FCFt(1+0.1)t=23,668,973.97\sum_{t=1}^{5} \frac{FCF_t}{(1 + 0.1)^t} = 23{,}668{,}973.97

  3. Terminal value (Gordon growth)

    TV=FCF5(1+gT)r−gT=7,346,640.38×1.0250.1−0.025=100,404,085.25TV = \frac{FCF_{5}(1 + g_T)}{r - g_T} = \frac{7{,}346{,}640.38 \times 1.025}{0.1 - 0.025} = 100{,}404{,}085.25

  4. Discount the terminal value

    100,404,085.25(1+0.1)5=62,343,037.45\frac{100{,}404{,}085.25}{(1 + 0.1)^{5}} = 62{,}343{,}037.45

  5. Enterprise and equity value

    EV=23,668,973.97+62,343,037.45=86,012,011.42,Equity=EV−10,000,000=76,012,011.42EV = 23{,}668{,}973.97 + 62{,}343{,}037.45 = 86{,}012{,}011.42,\quad \text{Equity} = EV - 10{,}000{,}000 = 76{,}012{,}011.42

  6. Per share

    76,012,011.4210,000,000=7.60\frac{76{,}012{,}011.42}{10{,}000{,}000} = 7.60

DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation) 소개

A discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation prices a business as the present value of the free cash flow it will produce. Here this year's free cash flow grows at a constant rate through the projection years, each year is discounted at the discount rate (usually the WACC), and a terminal value covers every later year with the Gordon growth formula, TV = FCF_N × (1 + g_T) ÷ (r − g_T), discounted back from year N. Subtracting net debt gives equity value, and dividing by shares gives value per share.

With the defaults, 5,000,000 of free cash flow growing 8% a year for 5 years, a 10% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth, the enterprise value is 86,012,011.42, of which the terminal value supplies 62,343,037.45, or 72%. After 10,000,000 of net debt, the equity is worth 76,012,011.42, or 7.60 a share across 10,000,000 shares.

Because the terminal value usually dominates, small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth move the result a long way. Terminal growth must stay below the discount rate.

계산 예제

Default company

Free cash flow this year
5,000,000
Growth during projection
8%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
2.5%
Net debt
10,000,000
Shares outstanding
10,000,000
Enterprise value
86,012,011.42
Equity value
76,012,011.42
Value per share
7.60
Present value of terminal value
62,343,037.45

검증 출처: Python decimal (prec 50) summing FCF₀(1.08)^t/1.1^t for t = 1…5 plus the Gordon terminal value discounted 5 years

FCF 100, 5% growth, 10% discount, 2% terminal

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
5%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
2%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
1,446.21
Present value of projected cash flows
435.81
Terminal value (at end of projection)
1,627.26
Share of value from terminal value
69.9%

검증 출처: Python decimal (prec 50): Σ PV = 435.812…, TV = 1627.259, EV = 1446.212

Flat cash flow over one year equals FCF / r

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
0%
Projection years
1 year
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
0%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
1,000.00
Present value of projected cash flows
90.91

검증 출처: A level perpetuity is worth FCF / r = 100 / 0.10 = 1000 (Gordon model with g = 0)

Same growth before and after equals one Gordon perpetuity

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
3%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
8%
Terminal growth rate
3%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
2,060.00

검증 출처: When g = g_T the whole stream is a growing perpetuity: FCF₁ / (r − g) = 103 / 0.05 = 2060

자주 묻는 질문

How do you calculate a DCF valuation?

Project free cash flow, discount each year at the discount rate, add the discounted terminal value, then subtract net debt. With the defaults, the five projected cash flows are worth 23,668,973.97 today and the terminal value 62,343,037.45, so the enterprise value is 86,012,011.42; less 10,000,000 of net debt, equity is 76,012,011.42.

How is terminal value calculated?

With the Gordon growth formula: next year's cash flow divided by the discount rate minus the long-run growth rate. The default year-5 cash flow is 5,000,000 × 1.08^5 = 7,346,640.38, so TV = 7,346,640.38 × 1.025 ÷ (0.10 − 0.025) = 100,404,085.25 at the end of year 5, or 62,343,037.45 in today's money.

What terminal growth rate should I use?

A rate no higher than the risk-free rate used in the valuation, as Aswath Damodaran of NYU Stern advises, because no business can outgrow the whole economy forever. The choice matters: with the other defaults fixed, terminal growth of 2% gives an enterprise value of 81,830,466.23, 2.5% gives 86,012,011.42 and 3% gives 90,790,920.21.

What discount rate should I use in a DCF?

For free cash flow to the firm, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which blends the required return on equity and the after-tax cost of debt. The result is sensitive to it: with the other defaults fixed, a 9% rate values the business at 99,615,400.68, 10% at 86,012,011.42 and 11% at 75,619,499.32.

What is the difference between enterprise value and equity value?

Enterprise value is what the whole business is worth to all its capital providers; equity value is what is left for shareholders after net debt (debt minus cash). The default enterprise value of 86,012,011.42 minus 10,000,000 of net debt leaves 76,012,011.42 of equity. With net cash, enter net debt as a negative number and equity exceeds enterprise value.

“DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation)”의 정확도는 어느 정도인가요?

정확도는 입력값과 계산 방법의 가정에 따라 달라집니다. 십진 연산은 유효숫자 50자리를 사용하지만, 추정값·수치해석 방법·원본 데이터의 정밀도는 더 낮을 수 있습니다. 표시값을 반올림해도 이러한 한계는 사라지지 않습니다. 독립적인 출처의 풀이와 대조한 계산 예시: 4. 예를 들어 “Default company”은 Python decimal (prec 50) summing FCF₀(1.08)^t/1.1^t for t = 1…5 plus the Gordon terminal value discounted 5 years와 대조해 확인합니다.

이 계산 방법의 출처는 무엇인가요?

Damodaran — Valuation: discounted cash flow models (NYU Stern); CFA Institute — Free cash flow valuation (CFA Program curriculum, Equity valuation).

이 계산기 소개

EV=∑t=1NFCF0(1+g)t(1+r)t+1(1+r)N⋅FCFN(1+gT)r−gTEV = \sum_{t=1}^{N} \frac{FCF_0(1+g)^t}{(1+r)^t} + \frac{1}{(1+r)^N}\cdot\frac{FCF_N(1+g_T)}{r - g_T}

출처

  1. Damodaran — Valuation: discounted cash flow models (NYU Stern)
  2. CFA Institute — Free cash flow valuation (CFA Program curriculum, Equity valuation)

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