DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation)

Calculate enterprise value, equity value and value per share with a DCF: projected free cash flows plus a Gordon-growth terminal value.

更新于 已验证的示例:4

$
The most recent annual free cash flow; year 1 is this grown once
%
years
%
%
Long-run growth after the projection; keep it at or below the risk-free rate
$
Debt minus cash; enter a negative number for net cash
试一试
Enterprise value
$
Enterprise value: $86,012,011.42
小数位数:2;取最近值,等距时取偶数末位
Equity value
$76,012,011.42
Value per share
$7.60
Present value of projected cash flows
$23,668,973.97
Terminal value (at end of projection)
$100,404,085.25
Present value of terminal value
$62,343,037.45
Share of value from terminal value
72.5%

Discounting 5 years of cash flow plus a terminal value gives an enterprise value of $86,012,011.42, 72% of it from the years after the projection. After net debt the equity is worth $76,012,011.42, or $7.60 per share.

Where the enterprise value comes from

72%from terminal value
Years 1–5 cash flows27.5%Terminal value72.5%

Cash flow and its present value by year

$0$2M$4M$6M$8MY1Y2Y3Y4Y5
Present valueLost to discounting
Projected free cash flows 行数:6
年Free cash flowDiscount factorPresent value
1$5,400,000.000.9091$4,909,090.91
2$5,832,000.000.8264$4,819,834.71
3$6,298,560.000.7513$4,732,201.35
4$6,802,444.800.683$4,646,161.33
5$7,346,640.380.6209$4,561,685.67
Terminal$100,404,085.250.6209$62,343,037.45
计算方法 S
  1. Project the cash flows

    FCFt=5,000,000×(1+0.08)t,FCF5=7,346,640.38FCF_t = 5{,}000{,}000 \times (1 + 0.08)^t,\quad FCF_{5} = 7{,}346{,}640.38
  2. Discount each year

    ∑t=15FCFt(1+0.1)t=23,668,973.97\sum_{t=1}^{5} \frac{FCF_t}{(1 + 0.1)^t} = 23{,}668{,}973.97
  3. Terminal value (Gordon growth)

    TV=FCF5(1+gT)r−gT=7,346,640.38×1.0250.1−0.025=100,404,085.25TV = \frac{FCF_{5}(1 + g_T)}{r - g_T} = \frac{7{,}346{,}640.38 \times 1.025}{0.1 - 0.025} = 100{,}404{,}085.25
  4. Discount the terminal value

    100,404,085.25(1+0.1)5=62,343,037.45\frac{100{,}404{,}085.25}{(1 + 0.1)^{5}} = 62{,}343{,}037.45
  5. Enterprise and equity value

    EV=23,668,973.97+62,343,037.45=86,012,011.42,Equity=EV−10,000,000=76,012,011.42EV = 23{,}668{,}973.97 + 62{,}343{,}037.45 = 86{,}012{,}011.42,\quad \text{Equity} = EV - 10{,}000{,}000 = 76{,}012{,}011.42
  6. Per share

    76,012,011.4210,000,000=7.60\frac{76{,}012{,}011.42}{10{,}000{,}000} = 7.60

关于DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation prices a business as the present value of the free cash flow it will produce. Here this year's free cash flow grows at a constant rate through the projection years, each year is discounted at the discount rate (usually the WACC), and a terminal value covers every later year with the Gordon growth formula, TV = FCF_N × (1 + g_T) ÷ (r − g_T), discounted back from year N. Subtracting net debt gives equity value, and dividing by shares gives value per share.

With the defaults, 5,000,000 of free cash flow growing 8% a year for 5 years, a 10% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth, the enterprise value is 86,012,011.42, of which the terminal value supplies 62,343,037.45, or 72%. After 10,000,000 of net debt, the equity is worth 76,012,011.42, or 7.60 a share across 10,000,000 shares.

Because the terminal value usually dominates, small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth move the result a long way. Terminal growth must stay below the discount rate.

计算示例

Default company

Free cash flow this year
5,000,000
Growth during projection
8%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
2.5%
Net debt
10,000,000
Shares outstanding
10,000,000
Enterprise value
86,012,011.42
Equity value
76,012,011.42
Value per share
7.60
Present value of terminal value
62,343,037.45

核验来源:Python decimal (prec 50) summing FCF₀(1.08)^t/1.1^t for t = 1…5 plus the Gordon terminal value discounted 5 years

FCF 100, 5% growth, 10% discount, 2% terminal

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
5%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
2%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
1,446.21
Present value of projected cash flows
435.81
Terminal value (at end of projection)
1,627.26
Share of value from terminal value
69.9%

核验来源:Python decimal (prec 50): Σ PV = 435.812…, TV = 1627.259, EV = 1446.212

Flat cash flow over one year equals FCF / r

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
0%
Projection years
1 year
Discount rate (WACC)
10%
Terminal growth rate
0%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
1,000.00
Present value of projected cash flows
90.91

核验来源:A level perpetuity is worth FCF / r = 100 / 0.10 = 1000 (Gordon model with g = 0)

Same growth before and after equals one Gordon perpetuity

Free cash flow this year
100
Growth during projection
3%
Projection years
5 years
Discount rate (WACC)
8%
Terminal growth rate
3%
Net debt
0
Enterprise value
2,060.00

核验来源:When g = g_T the whole stream is a growing perpetuity: FCF₁ / (r − g) = 103 / 0.05 = 2060

常见问题

How do you calculate a DCF valuation?

Project free cash flow, discount each year at the discount rate, add the discounted terminal value, then subtract net debt. With the defaults, the five projected cash flows are worth 23,668,973.97 today and the terminal value 62,343,037.45, so the enterprise value is 86,012,011.42; less 10,000,000 of net debt, equity is 76,012,011.42.

How is terminal value calculated?

With the Gordon growth formula: next year's cash flow divided by the discount rate minus the long-run growth rate. The default year-5 cash flow is 5,000,000 × 1.08^5 = 7,346,640.38, so TV = 7,346,640.38 × 1.025 ÷ (0.10 − 0.025) = 100,404,085.25 at the end of year 5, or 62,343,037.45 in today's money.

What terminal growth rate should I use?

A rate no higher than the risk-free rate used in the valuation, as Aswath Damodaran of NYU Stern advises, because no business can outgrow the whole economy forever. The choice matters: with the other defaults fixed, terminal growth of 2% gives an enterprise value of 81,830,466.23, 2.5% gives 86,012,011.42 and 3% gives 90,790,920.21.

What discount rate should I use in a DCF?

For free cash flow to the firm, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which blends the required return on equity and the after-tax cost of debt. The result is sensitive to it: with the other defaults fixed, a 9% rate values the business at 99,615,400.68, 10% at 86,012,011.42 and 11% at 75,619,499.32.

What is the difference between enterprise value and equity value?

Enterprise value is what the whole business is worth to all its capital providers; equity value is what is left for shareholders after net debt (debt minus cash). The default enterprise value of 86,012,011.42 minus 10,000,000 of net debt leaves 76,012,011.42 of equity. With net cash, enter net debt as a negative number and equity exceeds enterprise value.

“DCF calculator (discounted cash flow valuation)”有多准确?

准确性取决于输入值和方法的假设。十进制运算使用50位有效数字,但估算、数值方法和源数据的精度可能较低;显示时的舍入并不能消除这些限制。 已按独立来源核验的计算示例:4。 例如,“Default company”根据Python decimal (prec 50) summing FCF₀(1.08)^t/1.1^t for t = 1…5 plus the Gordon terminal value discounted 5 years进行核验。

这种方法出自哪里?

Damodaran — Valuation: discounted cash flow models (NYU Stern); CFA Institute — Free cash flow valuation (CFA Program curriculum, Equity valuation).

关于此计算器

EV=∑t=1NFCF0(1+g)t(1+r)t+1(1+r)N⋅FCFN(1+gT)r−gTEV = \sum_{t=1}^{N} \frac{FCF_0(1+g)^t}{(1+r)^t} + \frac{1}{(1+r)^N}\cdot\frac{FCF_N(1+g_T)}{r - g_T}

来源

  1. Damodaran — Valuation: discounted cash flow models (NYU Stern)
  2. CFA Institute — Free cash flow valuation (CFA Program curriculum, Equity valuation)

仅用于规划。贷款机构、税务机关和市场采用各自的舍入方式、费用和规则;作出承诺前,请向相关机构确认数值。

已对照来源验证

此计算器包含 4 个已解示例,答案来自独立来源。这些示例会在测试套件中运行,你也可以在此运行验证。

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